Preview: UFC 316 ‘Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2’

UFC Women's Bantamweight Championship
Julianna Pena (12-5) vs. Kayla Harrison (18-1)
Odds: Harrison (-650), Pena (+470)

The UFC's women's bantamweight division isn't in the best spot at the moment, but at least last year's signing of Kayla Harrison - and the potential impending return of Amanda Nunes - have given the proceedings at 135 pounds a bit of new life. A two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo, Harrison was a major get for the PFL as she transitioned to post-Olympic life, but it was unclear how the promotion would be able to maximize her; as a powerhouse of a woman, Harrison's natural weight seemed to be at 155 pounds, essentially leaving her to run over inflated bantamweights and featherweights while having no clear rivals. Larissa Pacheco did manage to upset Harrison in 2022 - which marked her third crack at Harrison - but otherwise, Harrison's PFL career was five years of her making good money without ever being presented much of a challenge. It came out of nowhere when the UFC announced they had signed Harrison ahead of UFC 300 last year, and even more shockingly that she would compete at 135 pounds, something that figured to be a massive ask from a physical standpoint. But Harrison's UFC debut was an unbridled success, as she overpowered Holly Holm without much difficulty en route to a second-round submission. The UFC could've thrown Harrison into a title shot from there, but decided to give her one more potential showcase against Ketlen Vieira this past October, which was more of a mixed bag; Harrison continued to establish herself as the strongest woman in the division but eventually did get stalled out a bit against a fellow powerhouse in Vieira, resulting in a flat fight down the stretch. Admittedly, Vieira still couldn't do much to Harrison in return, as Harrison was still the stronger fighter and - despite still being fairly wooden on the feet - the much harder shot-for-shot hitter, but it wasn't the major announcement that the Holm victory was, even if Harrison is still clearly the most interesting challenger for Julianna Pena.

Pena's had a bizarre and winding road to becoming a two-time bantamweight champion, a testament to her persistence even if it's still unclear at times exactly how we got here. "The Venezuelan Vixen" was both the clear standout fighter and personality on her season of TUF in 2013, and figured to be a going concern in the division sooner rather than later; Pena wasn't - and still isn't - the most technically sound fighter, but started out as an aggressive wrestler and grappler and eventually developed a game built around extreme doggedness in all areas. Unfortunately, Pena's career got derailed almost immediately due to a major knee injury, but she rebounded with one of the few active stretches of her career, stringing together some solid wins before falling victim to a Valentina Shevchenko armbar in 2017. From there, Pena was essentially a non-factor for four years, winning a flat decision over Nicco Montano in between stretches of pregnancy and other injuries, then getting choked unconscious by kickboxer Germaine de Randamie in a result that would've ended the title hopes of most fighters. But Pena rebounded from the de Randamie loss with a comeback win against Sara McMann, and with Nunes having few interesting or fresh challengers as a dominant champion, Pena shockingly wound up as the next title contender, seemingly simply as the most willing trash-talker. For about a round, their fight was an unsurprisingly one-sided shellacking from the Nunes side - until the unthinkable happened; Nunes suddenly gassed out, allowing Pena to take over the fight and author one of the unlikeliest upsets in mixed martial arts history. The immediate rematch was another beating, only this time without the comeback, and more Pena injuries scuttled a planned trilogy fight before Nunes retired - though Pena still got a title shot in her next fight, a narrow 2024 decision win over Raquel Pennington that was a bit of a mess. Pena seems to once again be completely counted out here, which does feel like a mistake; her game is held together completely by toughness and cardio, but she does seem to be elite in terms of having those skills. So even if the first round or two of this fight is rough, it wouldn't be a shock to see her stage another late comeback; Harrison stalled out down the stretch against Vieira, and she's unproven as a five-round fighter after this massive cut to 135 pounds. But, well, those first two rounds of this fight figure to be particularly rough; Pena isn't much of a defensive wrestler, and for all her toughness and survival instincts, she's probably going to spend the first few minutes of this fight on her back taking an absolute beating. Pena won't quit and might not even get knocked out, but Harrison might take this fight over to such a degree that the referee takes things out of her hands; the pick is Harrison via second-round stoppage.

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Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley
Pena vs. Harrison
Gastelum vs. Pyfer
Bautista vs. Mix
Luque vs. Holland
The Prelims